Baseball sportbook online
May 18th MLB news ... Welcome to Baseball sportbook online, the site with everything you need to score a profit on baseball betting.
Welcome to baseballsportbookonline.com, the site with everything you need to score a profit on baseball betting.
By logging on daily throughout the baseball season, you will keep up to date on all of the necessary statistics, trends and tips to put you on the profit side come seasons end. Whether you need to know how a team hits lefties or are just looking for a hot tip, you'll find all of that information and much more right here.
Welcome to baseballsportbookonline.com, the site with everything you need to score a profit on baseball betting.
By logging on daily throughout the baseball season, you will keep up to date on all of the necessary statistics, trends and tips to put you on the profit side come seasons end. Whether you need to know how a team hits lefties or are just looking for a hot tip, you'll find all of that information and much more right here.
Baseball sportbook online News
2010 World Series Betting Preview
2010-10-26
Sportsbook.com World Series Price:
Texas Rangers -150
Giants +130a
The World Series gets underway Wednesday night in San Francisco with two unlikely franchises playing for baseball’s most coveted prize. The Giants haven’t won a World Series since 1954 and Texas is making its first-ever appearance in the Fall Classic.
The only pitching matchup set in stone is Game 1 which is scheduled to feature aces Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA). Lee has been remarkable this postseason, going 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in three starts. The southpaw has given up just two runs on 13 hits in 24 innings while striking out 34 and walking only one. Lincecum has been tremendous as well, compiling a 2-1 record and a 1.96 ERA in three playoff starts.
Wednesday will mark the first meeting between the two teams this year. They met last year as a part of interleague play with the Giants sweeping Texas in a three-game set in San Francisco. Two of the three games went under the total. Matt Cain threw a gem in the middle game of the series, going eight innings and giving up one run on three hits in a 2-1 Giants win. Texas is likely to see Cain in Game 2.
After Lee, San Francisco should see the combination of C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. Wilson is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA so far this postseason while Lewis is 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Lewis picked up both wins against the vaunted Yankee offense and limited New York to three runs over 13.2 innings. Meanwhile, the Giants’ rotation behind Lincecum has fared well this postseason with Cain leading the way at 1-0 having yet to give up an earned run. Jonathan Sanchez totes a 2.93 postseason ERA while Madison Bumgarner comes in at 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in three appearances.
Here are some interesting MLB betting trends for those that will be betting on the World Series.
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-19 (+23.8 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*).
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-35 (+21.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-28 (+16.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).
TEXAS is 25-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).
TEXAS is 57-43 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS is 53-39 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).
With the most generous dime lines in the business, make Sportsbook.com your home for all of your World Series betting.
MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Texas
2010-06-04
In American League action, it’s a battle of two division leaders this upcoming weekend for a three-game series. Though the season still has four months left, this series is a meaningful confrontation in the pecking order of the American League. Interestingly, despite being played in Arlington, Tampa Bay is the -145 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com oddsmakers.
Neither club enters this series playing their best baseball of the season. Tampa Bay (36-18, +7.9 units) is 4-6 in the last 10 games, with the pitching sputtering in allowing 4.9 runs per contest. Manager Joe Maddon has gotten the scouting reports and knows the Rangers are for real.
“They got better,” Maddon told MLB.com. “They’ve really pitched well against us. I think they’re pitching substantially better. And you’ve got Vladimir (Guerrero) playing like he did a couple of years ago right now. And that’s definitely going to make them a better ballclub.”
Texas (28-25, -1) has fallen off their saddle seven of the last 10 outings and seen their lead over Oakland dwindle to zilch; leading the A’s by one percentage point in the AL West standings. What has caused the slide for the Rangers is an inconsistent offense, totaling 26 runs in the three victories and 20 runs in the seven defeats.
In trying to figure out what to expect, both teams are playing from a position of strength. The Rays are marvelous 21-6 on the road and Texas is 18-9 at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Tampa Bay won 7-3 at Toronto on Wednesday and is 16-3 in road games after a win this season and will start Wade Davis (5-4, 4.04 ERA) who has permitted more than three runs only three times in his 10 starts. The 24-year old has needed relief help, pitching more than six innings just twice.
Sportsbook.com has Texas as -130 money line favorites behind left-hander C.J. Wilson (3-3, 3.48). After an impressive beginning, Wilson is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA in his past three starts and will have to do his part for his club to improve on 14-3 record vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs per contest. The converted reliever has posted a 1.35 ERA against Tampa Bay in 13 appearances out of the bullpen, however the Rays are 17-6 vs. lefty’s this year.
Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay
Saturday’s matchup is a FOX regional afternoon telecast. Tampa was 3-6 and just 1-5 at Arlington last season and will look for quick reversal of fortune. The Rays starting pitchers didn’t handle the smallish dimensions of the Rangers ball-yard, allowing better than a run per inning in the 28 they threw in 2009. James Shields (5-3, 3.62) will seek to change this direction for his team. The right-hander has almost a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, however, working the plate as well as he does leaves him to susceptible to the long ball and he has given up 11 (third most in AL) home runs.
Tommy Hunter was supposed to be part of the Texas rotation from opening day after last year’s 9-6 campaign with a 4.10 ERA. Hunter strained a muscle in his left ribcage in Arizona in March and has made six starts at Triple-A Oklahoma City before being recalled (1-2, 4.05). The Rangers won six of his eight home starts a year ago, but are only 7-19 on Saturday’s.
Watch the line carefully on this contest with the Rays 9-1 coming into the series when the money line is +125 to -125. Shields has not pitched since last Saturday and is 5-0 with five days rest.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay
Rich Harden (3-1) will pitch the finale for Texas and he’s brought his club luck, as they have won eight of his 11 starts in spite of 5.33 ERA. Normally when the right-hander has problems, its loss of command and walks too many batters, with low hit totals. That has not been the case in Rangers uniform, as Harden has been wild enough to concede 37 base on balls in 54 innings, but also has been touched for 55 hits.
Watching Matt Garza (5-4, 3.08) pitch, the feeling is something is missing. You witness the mid-90’s fastball that can saw off a bat like beaver and has curve and slider that can freeze hitters. Despite the obvious ability, he is 24-25 in a Rays’ uniform for his career, not always having the right mental makeup when he doesn’t have his A-Game. Against Texas, Garza is 3-3, however is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA at Arlington.
Game 3 Edge: Texas
Both teams have started to swing the bats better the last few contests, which could lead to totals plays on the Over in the series. The Rays are the better overall team and they can negate the Texas home field edge with as well as they have played on the road. This is not a walkover by any means and I’ll throw support to Tampa Bay, but only by the slimmest of margins.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -145, Texas +115
StatFox Edge Pick: Tampa Bay. 2010 Record – 3-5
MLB: ALCS Betting Preview – Los Angeles vs. New York
2009-10-16
While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. It could be a high scoring series. New York is a -180 favorite at Sportsbook.com for the series, but there are numerous other exciting wagering options to choose from, sides, totals, props, you name it. Read on for a preview of the series then head over to the LIVE ODDS page for the latest options.
New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.
Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia’s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be “big time” on the various teams he’s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.
A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on “stuff”, yet it always doesn’t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett’s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.
This is a different Angels’ team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The “hack at everything” team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin’ the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.
It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn’t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.
When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O’Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it’s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3’s on most teams. That’s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI’s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he’s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won’t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.
Offensive – American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st
Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th
Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don’t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/31-8/2
2009-07-31
Friday is trade deadline day. Saturday marks the first day of August. In the world of Major League Baseball, both are important on the annual calendar, meaning this weekend is a pivotal one in the sport. For the contenders who’ve made moves to acquire more talent, it’s go time for the last two months. For those who made themselves sellers, it’s time to develop young players while relegated to the role of spoiler. Of course, both types of teams will be in action over the next few days. Read on as we take a look at the action featuring teams with something still to play for, plus reveal some of the Top StatFox Power Trends available on the weekend schedule.
The National League features two premiere matchups on the schedule this weekend. In the first one, the suddenly hot Cubs will be hitting the road to take on Florida. Chicago comes off a 6-1 homestand that extended an overall recent surge of 13-4. That run has enabled the Cubbies to climb back into a tight battle with St. Louis atop the Central Division. Chicago has taken six of the last eight between these two teams after struggling prior. The Marlins have recovered from a disastrous 3-game home sweep at the hands of the Phillies a couple of weeks ago to get back in the wildcard hunt, just behind San Francisco. A couple of key trends will be tested in this series, since Florida is just 8-14 vs. N.L. Central clubs while Chicago has endured a season of struggles on the road, just 21-27 for -8.3 units.
The other key senior circuit series offers a potential divisional series preview, as the Phillies and Giants continue a 4-game set from San Francisco. It should be a great series for fans of dominant young starting pitchers, as both teams boast great rotations. In fact, the wildcard-leading Giants allow just 3.7 runs per game, nearly a half run better than anyone else in baseball. The Phillies meanwhile, don’t boast those kinds of numbers, but they just recently enhanced their rotation, and chances for a second straight pennant, by adding former Indians’ ace Cliff Lee to the fold. This also figures to be a great matchup since again, something will have to give. The Giants are the league’s best home team, while Philadelphia is the premiere road team in baseball.
In the American League, the tightest race is in the Central Division, where Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago are separated by just three games. The Tigers lead the fray but will be the only team on the road this weekend. Does that give them a disadvantage? Perhaps not when you consider that they will be taking on Cleveland, who despite playing better of late, has been one of the most active sellers in the trade market. The Indians are clearly building for the future. Meanwhile, the Twins will be hosting the West-leading Angels, and the White Sox are taking on the East-leading Yankees. Both of those road teams are red-hot, so it could be said that Detroit actually does hold the scheduling edge over its closest competitors this weekend.
Another eye-catching series in the junior circuit pits Seattle at Texas. The Rangers continue to beat most experts’ preseason predictions by playing good solid baseball all-around. They have gotten far more production out of their starting pitching staff than ever expected, but are also hitting the ball in Ranger-like fashion. They are right on the heels of the Red Sox for the A.L. Wildcard spot and will look to continue an impressive stretch against divisional foes. Texas was 18-8 versus A.L. West clubs going into Thursday’s series opener.
Now, get a load of these Top StatFox Power Trends that will affect this weekend’s betting action:
Nationals at Pirates
WASHINGTON is 28-70 (-39.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
Rockies at Reds
COLORADO is 46-37 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.3, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Cubs at Marlins
FLORIDA is 47-30 (+19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Diamondbacks at Mets
ARIZONA is 22-35 (-17.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Dodgers at Braves
ATLANTA is 7-18 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 3.8, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Astros at Cardinals
HOUSTON is 25-19 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
Brewers at Padres
SAN DIEGO is 3-15 (-11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.7, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Phillies at Giants
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Red Sox at Orioles
BOSTON is 25-12 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.2, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*)
Tigers at Indians
CLEVELAND is 10-15 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.7, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Royals at Rays
KANSAS CITY is 5-17 (-13.2 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
Mariners at Rangers
SEATTLE is 22-44 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Angels at Twins
MINNESOTA is 3-14 (-13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .285 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Yankees at White Sox
CHI WHITE SOX are 29-11 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Blue Jays at Athletics
OAKLAND is 10-16 (-9.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.8, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB Series Betting- Texas at Boston
2009-06-08
The Texas Rangers maintain their lead in the American League West and to stay in the same spot, they will have to whether one of the roughest periods on the schedule. The Rangers just lost two out of three to the Yankees and are spending three days in New England to take on Boston, before heading home to play four with Toronto and a series next weekend against currently the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston is a -250 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com. Perhaps use this unique wagering option when you look at the menu of LIVE ODDS for Friday baseball.
Texas (31-22, +10.7 units) is going to have to do this without one of its big sluggers, Josh Hamilton. He was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sports hernia and could miss up to two months or more if it requires surgery. Hamilton is currently resting and taking anti-flammatory medications in the hope he will be able to return in a more normal fashion from the DL. The talented centerfielder was not having a 130-rbi year like last season; nevertheless he’s an important cog in the Texas lineup and will be missed.
The Rangers arrive in Boston with 49-26 record having lost two of their last three games; however Fenway Park gives them the chills. Texas has lost eight in a row and nine of 11 at the venerable ball yard and will send Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23 ERA) to try his luck. Millwood came into camp in the best shape in years and has been more productive than wins and losses indicate. He is 10th in the AL in ERA and is 3-1 lifetime at Fenway. Sportsbook.com has Texas as +125 underdog to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) and Boston.
The Red Sox (32-22, +4.4 units) are riding four-game winning streak and are 17-6 at home this season. With the total listed Ov10, that would seem to favor Boston who is 30-6 on home turf when the number is 10 or higher. Conversely, Millwood and the Rangers are 5-17 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
Manager Terry Francona’s club feels pretty confident coming into this series. They had just completed 6-4 road trip and swept division leader Detroit, which gave them a tie atop the AL East with New York. This does not suggest everything is well in Red Sox nation. David Ortiz continues to hit about 30 or more pounds below his weight, with .187 batting average and will have his eyes tested. Kevin Youkilis was stepped on at first base, making him day to day for this series with bad calf. What has saved the Red Sox is starting pitching. As this weekend series begins, the Boston starters have 2.01 ERA in last five contests and when backed up with bullpen that has Major League best 2.86 earned run average, if the Red Sox could score just four runs, they will be difficult to beat.
The BoSox are 18-3 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season and will start Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65). The left-hander has been inconsistent, but is coming off career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start, a win over Toronto. Over six innings, Lester allowed one run on three hits and he and his teammates are 23-5 at Fenway.
Texas will counter with Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33). The 23-year old was brought up from the minors when injuries hit the Rangers starting staff. Holland physically matured a year ago and solved a few mechanical issues and throws true Texas heat. On the radar gun, mid-90’s is common and upper 90’s is not unusual. His future lies in ability to develop curveball that could make his power starter or power reliever. He’s made two starts and is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA and Boston is 12-4 against lefties. The Rangers on the other hand are 19-39 vs. southpaws.
Game 2 Edge: Boston
The final game of the series will have two veteran pitchers, trying to find their way in 2009. Vincente Padilla (3-3, 5.57) thought he was on his way in May with three razor-sharp performances, surrendering five runs total, in picking up three victories. He was then felled by strained right shoulder, which landed him on DL and in his first start back was clocked for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maybe the light of day will help, since Padilla and Texas are 4-1 when he pitches day ball this season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) finally broke into the win column in his last outing, allowing one run over five innings against Detroit. The right-hander walked three and struck out six. Matsuzaka has been taxing on the bullpen, having pitched into the sixth inning just once in 2009. Based on both pitchers current form, this could be high scoring affair, though the oddsmakers have taken into account both teams daytime activities and they are combined 20-18-1 UNDER when playing in the afternoon.
Game 3 Edge: Texas
Thus far, the picks have been lousy at best and twice talked myself out of the right plays. This won’t happen this week. Boston owns Texas at Fenway and has favorable pitching matchups in first two games and is playing with more confidence. The Red Sox can mash with Texas and is 10-2 vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this year. Boston is the play.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Texas +190, Boston -250
StatFox Edge Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 2-5
Betting on Chicago’s Survival
2008-10-06
The Chicago White Sox are proving to be as crafty as any street cat you see find walking around. For the third time in a week, Chicago staved off elimination, beating Tampa Bay 5-3, to trail the Rays 2-1 in the ALDS. The White Sox could care less how many lives they use up, as long as it leads to another World Series, who cares.
This figured to be a series where the home field would be a significant aspect.
Tampa Bay held the best record in baseball playing at home at 57-24 and Chicago was fourth at 54-28. To think that you are just going to waltz through this whole thing is not a good thought,” said Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, whose team went 40-41 on the road during the regular season. “It’s very unreasonable. They’re very good. They have faced some difficult moments recently in this ballpark and have done well.”
The White Sox are 23-8 against the money line in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season. They will start Gavin Floyd (17-8, 3.84 ERA) who helped keep the season alive last Monday defeating Detroit 8-2 to help Chicago tie Minnesota for the Central Division lead at the conclusion of 162 games. Floyd and the Sox are 14-3 at U.S. Cellular Field this season. “The fans have always been great. The atmosphere has been great here,” said the right-hander who’s never started against Tampa Bay.
Having faltered in their first attempt to put away the Pale Hose, the Rays will take another stab at it with Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38). The Tampa Bat right-hander has not won since August 18 picking up three losses, with the Rays 3-4 in those seven outings. Tampa Bay is 40-23 after having won three of their last four games this season and Sonnanstine 7-1 up against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. (Rays Record)
Sportsbook.com has Chicago as -125 money line favorites, with a total of Ov8.5. Based on the starting pitchers, Game 4 could be Totals play. Sonnanstine and Tampa Bay are 22-11 OVER when listed as underdog the last two years and Floyd and the Sox are 12-4 OVER at home in 2008. The only part that could ruin this is the last afternoon start (4:05 in Chicago), which would create background issues for hitters until the lights can take affect.
Chicago is 5-8 versus Tampa Bay this season and 2-2 at home and will be in full survival mode yet again, trying to force a deciding Game 5 Wednesday on the Left Coast of Florida.
StatFox Power Line – Chicago -132
MLB: First Place Rays hit the road as Favorites
2008-07-24
The Tampa Bay Rays are embarking on a vast number of road games over the next several weeks, which might explain what their real chances will be of winning the AL East and making the postseason for the first time in team history. Tampa Bay, to this point of the year is spectacular 40-16 at home, gathering +19.3 units of profit. No team in baseball has played more home games than the Rays 56, which means the schedule has to balance up in home and road contests. Starting tonight, Tampa Bay will play 17 of next 23 away from Tropicana Field.
Compared to many teams in baseball, manager Joe Maddon’s club is not that bad on the road at 19-25 (-5.7 units), placing them 16th overall. What makes heading out on the road different this time, is the aura of having lost last six games on the road. Maddon, as any good baseball man can point to, losing two in a row at Yankee Stadium is no big deal, since no opponent can presently win at the House Ruth built and New York City will tear down. Losing four in a row at Cleveland sounds worse than what actually occurred, since the Devil Rays or the Rays never win there anyways.
Tampa Bay has to be encouraged at first stop, Kansas City, who lost three in a row at home to Detroit and the pitching staff was massacred in allowing 33 runs in three games, while the Royals touched home plate just six times in the series. In the last three years, Tampa Bay is 11-6 versus K.C. and has split six contests at Kauffman Stadium.
Rays starter Matt Garza (8-5, 3.68, 1.200 WHIP) will take on a Royals club that is 2-11 against the money line in home games after a loss by four runs or more this season. Garza’s last road outing was a rough one, giving up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his July 12 start. He bounced back with 7 2/3 shutout innings against Toronto at home, nevertheless is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. Granted, this is a different Tampa Bay team from the past, yet they are still 2-19 in July road games over the last two seasons and Garza is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Royals.
Kansas City had won five of seven and two series in a row, until they were mauled by the Tigers. Time for the Royals to regroup and they’ll send Gil Meche (7-9, 4.48, 1.342) to the mound, hoping he can provide pitching relief. Meche is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Rays. To his credit, the right-hander has been much more effective of late, as K.C. has won six of his last seven starts (+6.15 units) and he is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA in that stretch.
Tampa Bay is getting the nod from those wagering that they are better team and have moved from -110 to -120 road favorites at Sportsbook.com. The Royals are 3-13 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring two runs or less this season and 35-75 in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five outings. Tampa Bay is 42-26 against right-handed starters in 2008 and 40-21 when favored at -110 or higher.
This contest will commence at 8:10 Eastern and if Tampa Bay can win this series, it would the first time they have ever won 21 series in a season.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -114
2010-10-26
Sportsbook.com World Series Price:
Texas Rangers -150
Giants +130a
The World Series gets underway Wednesday night in San Francisco with two unlikely franchises playing for baseball’s most coveted prize. The Giants haven’t won a World Series since 1954 and Texas is making its first-ever appearance in the Fall Classic.
The only pitching matchup set in stone is Game 1 which is scheduled to feature aces Cliff Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA) and Tim Lincecum (16-10, 3.43 ERA). Lee has been remarkable this postseason, going 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA in three starts. The southpaw has given up just two runs on 13 hits in 24 innings while striking out 34 and walking only one. Lincecum has been tremendous as well, compiling a 2-1 record and a 1.96 ERA in three playoff starts.
Wednesday will mark the first meeting between the two teams this year. They met last year as a part of interleague play with the Giants sweeping Texas in a three-game set in San Francisco. Two of the three games went under the total. Matt Cain threw a gem in the middle game of the series, going eight innings and giving up one run on three hits in a 2-1 Giants win. Texas is likely to see Cain in Game 2.
After Lee, San Francisco should see the combination of C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis. Wilson is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA so far this postseason while Lewis is 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Lewis picked up both wins against the vaunted Yankee offense and limited New York to three runs over 13.2 innings. Meanwhile, the Giants’ rotation behind Lincecum has fared well this postseason with Cain leading the way at 1-0 having yet to give up an earned run. Jonathan Sanchez totes a 2.93 postseason ERA while Madison Bumgarner comes in at 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in three appearances.
Here are some interesting MLB betting trends for those that will be betting on the World Series.
SAN FRANCISCO is 42-19 (+23.8 Units) against the money line with an on-base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.7 - (Rating = 3*).
SAN FRANCISCO is 58-35 (+21.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.4 - (Rating = 2*).
SAN FRANCISCO is 44-28 (+16.6 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season. The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 4.2, OPPONENT 3.3 - (Rating = 2*).
TEXAS is 25-6 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors this season. The average score was TEXAS 5.9, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*).
TEXAS is 57-43 (+16.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 4.7, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*).
TEXAS is 53-39 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 5.0, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 1*).
With the most generous dime lines in the business, make Sportsbook.com your home for all of your World Series betting.
MLB Series Betting- Tampa Bay at Texas
2010-06-04
In American League action, it’s a battle of two division leaders this upcoming weekend for a three-game series. Though the season still has four months left, this series is a meaningful confrontation in the pecking order of the American League. Interestingly, despite being played in Arlington, Tampa Bay is the -145 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com oddsmakers.
Neither club enters this series playing their best baseball of the season. Tampa Bay (36-18, +7.9 units) is 4-6 in the last 10 games, with the pitching sputtering in allowing 4.9 runs per contest. Manager Joe Maddon has gotten the scouting reports and knows the Rangers are for real.
“They got better,” Maddon told MLB.com. “They’ve really pitched well against us. I think they’re pitching substantially better. And you’ve got Vladimir (Guerrero) playing like he did a couple of years ago right now. And that’s definitely going to make them a better ballclub.”
Texas (28-25, -1) has fallen off their saddle seven of the last 10 outings and seen their lead over Oakland dwindle to zilch; leading the A’s by one percentage point in the AL West standings. What has caused the slide for the Rangers is an inconsistent offense, totaling 26 runs in the three victories and 20 runs in the seven defeats.
In trying to figure out what to expect, both teams are playing from a position of strength. The Rays are marvelous 21-6 on the road and Texas is 18-9 at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.
Tampa Bay won 7-3 at Toronto on Wednesday and is 16-3 in road games after a win this season and will start Wade Davis (5-4, 4.04 ERA) who has permitted more than three runs only three times in his 10 starts. The 24-year old has needed relief help, pitching more than six innings just twice.
Sportsbook.com has Texas as -130 money line favorites behind left-hander C.J. Wilson (3-3, 3.48). After an impressive beginning, Wilson is 0-2 with a 9.56 ERA in his past three starts and will have to do his part for his club to improve on 14-3 record vs. AL teams allowing 3.7 or less runs per contest. The converted reliever has posted a 1.35 ERA against Tampa Bay in 13 appearances out of the bullpen, however the Rays are 17-6 vs. lefty’s this year.
Game 1 Edge: Tampa Bay
Saturday’s matchup is a FOX regional afternoon telecast. Tampa was 3-6 and just 1-5 at Arlington last season and will look for quick reversal of fortune. The Rays starting pitchers didn’t handle the smallish dimensions of the Rangers ball-yard, allowing better than a run per inning in the 28 they threw in 2009. James Shields (5-3, 3.62) will seek to change this direction for his team. The right-hander has almost a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio, however, working the plate as well as he does leaves him to susceptible to the long ball and he has given up 11 (third most in AL) home runs.
Tommy Hunter was supposed to be part of the Texas rotation from opening day after last year’s 9-6 campaign with a 4.10 ERA. Hunter strained a muscle in his left ribcage in Arizona in March and has made six starts at Triple-A Oklahoma City before being recalled (1-2, 4.05). The Rangers won six of his eight home starts a year ago, but are only 7-19 on Saturday’s.
Watch the line carefully on this contest with the Rays 9-1 coming into the series when the money line is +125 to -125. Shields has not pitched since last Saturday and is 5-0 with five days rest.
Game 2 Edge: Tampa Bay
Rich Harden (3-1) will pitch the finale for Texas and he’s brought his club luck, as they have won eight of his 11 starts in spite of 5.33 ERA. Normally when the right-hander has problems, its loss of command and walks too many batters, with low hit totals. That has not been the case in Rangers uniform, as Harden has been wild enough to concede 37 base on balls in 54 innings, but also has been touched for 55 hits.
Watching Matt Garza (5-4, 3.08) pitch, the feeling is something is missing. You witness the mid-90’s fastball that can saw off a bat like beaver and has curve and slider that can freeze hitters. Despite the obvious ability, he is 24-25 in a Rays’ uniform for his career, not always having the right mental makeup when he doesn’t have his A-Game. Against Texas, Garza is 3-3, however is 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA at Arlington.
Game 3 Edge: Texas
Both teams have started to swing the bats better the last few contests, which could lead to totals plays on the Over in the series. The Rays are the better overall team and they can negate the Texas home field edge with as well as they have played on the road. This is not a walkover by any means and I’ll throw support to Tampa Bay, but only by the slimmest of margins.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Tampa Bay -145, Texas +115
StatFox Edge Pick: Tampa Bay. 2010 Record – 3-5
MLB: ALCS Betting Preview – Los Angeles vs. New York
2009-10-16
While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. It could be a high scoring series. New York is a -180 favorite at Sportsbook.com for the series, but there are numerous other exciting wagering options to choose from, sides, totals, props, you name it. Read on for a preview of the series then head over to the LIVE ODDS page for the latest options.
New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.
Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia’s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be “big time” on the various teams he’s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.
A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on “stuff”, yet it always doesn’t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett’s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.
This is a different Angels’ team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The “hack at everything” team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin’ the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.
It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn’t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.
When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O’Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it’s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3’s on most teams. That’s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI’s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he’s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won’t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.
Offensive – American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st
Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th
Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don’t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.
Sportsbook.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150
MLB: Top MLB Weekend Power Trends 7/31-8/2
2009-07-31
Friday is trade deadline day. Saturday marks the first day of August. In the world of Major League Baseball, both are important on the annual calendar, meaning this weekend is a pivotal one in the sport. For the contenders who’ve made moves to acquire more talent, it’s go time for the last two months. For those who made themselves sellers, it’s time to develop young players while relegated to the role of spoiler. Of course, both types of teams will be in action over the next few days. Read on as we take a look at the action featuring teams with something still to play for, plus reveal some of the Top StatFox Power Trends available on the weekend schedule.
The National League features two premiere matchups on the schedule this weekend. In the first one, the suddenly hot Cubs will be hitting the road to take on Florida. Chicago comes off a 6-1 homestand that extended an overall recent surge of 13-4. That run has enabled the Cubbies to climb back into a tight battle with St. Louis atop the Central Division. Chicago has taken six of the last eight between these two teams after struggling prior. The Marlins have recovered from a disastrous 3-game home sweep at the hands of the Phillies a couple of weeks ago to get back in the wildcard hunt, just behind San Francisco. A couple of key trends will be tested in this series, since Florida is just 8-14 vs. N.L. Central clubs while Chicago has endured a season of struggles on the road, just 21-27 for -8.3 units.
The other key senior circuit series offers a potential divisional series preview, as the Phillies and Giants continue a 4-game set from San Francisco. It should be a great series for fans of dominant young starting pitchers, as both teams boast great rotations. In fact, the wildcard-leading Giants allow just 3.7 runs per game, nearly a half run better than anyone else in baseball. The Phillies meanwhile, don’t boast those kinds of numbers, but they just recently enhanced their rotation, and chances for a second straight pennant, by adding former Indians’ ace Cliff Lee to the fold. This also figures to be a great matchup since again, something will have to give. The Giants are the league’s best home team, while Philadelphia is the premiere road team in baseball.
In the American League, the tightest race is in the Central Division, where Detroit, Minnesota, and Chicago are separated by just three games. The Tigers lead the fray but will be the only team on the road this weekend. Does that give them a disadvantage? Perhaps not when you consider that they will be taking on Cleveland, who despite playing better of late, has been one of the most active sellers in the trade market. The Indians are clearly building for the future. Meanwhile, the Twins will be hosting the West-leading Angels, and the White Sox are taking on the East-leading Yankees. Both of those road teams are red-hot, so it could be said that Detroit actually does hold the scheduling edge over its closest competitors this weekend.
Another eye-catching series in the junior circuit pits Seattle at Texas. The Rangers continue to beat most experts’ preseason predictions by playing good solid baseball all-around. They have gotten far more production out of their starting pitching staff than ever expected, but are also hitting the ball in Ranger-like fashion. They are right on the heels of the Red Sox for the A.L. Wildcard spot and will look to continue an impressive stretch against divisional foes. Texas was 18-8 versus A.L. West clubs going into Thursday’s series opener.
Now, get a load of these Top StatFox Power Trends that will affect this weekend’s betting action:
Nationals at Pirates
WASHINGTON is 28-70 (-39.7 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 3.8, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 3*)
Rockies at Reds
COLORADO is 46-37 (+17.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was COLORADO 4.3, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Cubs at Marlins
FLORIDA is 47-30 (+19.9 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was FLORIDA 5.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 2*)
Diamondbacks at Mets
ARIZONA is 22-35 (-17.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. The average score was ARIZONA 4.0, OPPONENT 4.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Dodgers at Braves
ATLANTA is 7-18 (-12.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 3.8, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Astros at Cardinals
HOUSTON is 25-19 (+14.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was HOUSTON 3.9, OPPONENT 4.8 - (Rating = 2*)
Brewers at Padres
SAN DIEGO is 3-15 (-11.9 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.7, OPPONENT 5.5 - (Rating = 1*)
Phillies at Giants
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHILADELPHIA 4.4, OPPONENT 3.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Red Sox at Orioles
BOSTON is 25-12 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents this season. The average score was BOSTON 5.2, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*)
Tigers at Indians
CLEVELAND is 10-15 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. The average score was CLEVELAND 3.7, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Royals at Rays
KANSAS CITY is 5-17 (-13.2 Units) against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game this season. The average score was KANSAS CITY 3.5, OPPONENT 5.1 - (Rating = 1*)
Mariners at Rangers
SEATTLE is 22-44 (-21.4 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was SEATTLE 3.9, OPPONENT 5.4 - (Rating = 1*)
Angels at Twins
MINNESOTA is 3-14 (-13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .285 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MINNESOTA 3.2, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 1*)
Yankees at White Sox
CHI WHITE SOX are 29-11 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHI WHITE SOX 6.2, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
Blue Jays at Athletics
OAKLAND is 10-16 (-9.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.8, OPPONENT 4.0 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB Series Betting- Texas at Boston
2009-06-08
The Texas Rangers maintain their lead in the American League West and to stay in the same spot, they will have to whether one of the roughest periods on the schedule. The Rangers just lost two out of three to the Yankees and are spending three days in New England to take on Boston, before heading home to play four with Toronto and a series next weekend against currently the best team in baseball, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Boston is a -250 series favorite according to Sportsbook.com. Perhaps use this unique wagering option when you look at the menu of LIVE ODDS for Friday baseball.
Texas (31-22, +10.7 units) is going to have to do this without one of its big sluggers, Josh Hamilton. He was placed on the disabled list Tuesday with a sports hernia and could miss up to two months or more if it requires surgery. Hamilton is currently resting and taking anti-flammatory medications in the hope he will be able to return in a more normal fashion from the DL. The talented centerfielder was not having a 130-rbi year like last season; nevertheless he’s an important cog in the Texas lineup and will be missed.
The Rangers arrive in Boston with 49-26 record having lost two of their last three games; however Fenway Park gives them the chills. Texas has lost eight in a row and nine of 11 at the venerable ball yard and will send Kevin Millwood (4-4, 3.23 ERA) to try his luck. Millwood came into camp in the best shape in years and has been more productive than wins and losses indicate. He is 10th in the AL in ERA and is 3-1 lifetime at Fenway. Sportsbook.com has Texas as +125 underdog to Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) and Boston.
The Red Sox (32-22, +4.4 units) are riding four-game winning streak and are 17-6 at home this season. With the total listed Ov10, that would seem to favor Boston who is 30-6 on home turf when the number is 10 or higher. Conversely, Millwood and the Rangers are 5-17 on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons.
Game 1 Edge: Boston
Manager Terry Francona’s club feels pretty confident coming into this series. They had just completed 6-4 road trip and swept division leader Detroit, which gave them a tie atop the AL East with New York. This does not suggest everything is well in Red Sox nation. David Ortiz continues to hit about 30 or more pounds below his weight, with .187 batting average and will have his eyes tested. Kevin Youkilis was stepped on at first base, making him day to day for this series with bad calf. What has saved the Red Sox is starting pitching. As this weekend series begins, the Boston starters have 2.01 ERA in last five contests and when backed up with bullpen that has Major League best 2.86 earned run average, if the Red Sox could score just four runs, they will be difficult to beat.
The BoSox are 18-3 vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs a game on the season and will start Jon Lester (4-5, 5.65). The left-hander has been inconsistent, but is coming off career-high 12 strikeouts in his last start, a win over Toronto. Over six innings, Lester allowed one run on three hits and he and his teammates are 23-5 at Fenway.
Texas will counter with Derek Holland (1-2, 6.33). The 23-year old was brought up from the minors when injuries hit the Rangers starting staff. Holland physically matured a year ago and solved a few mechanical issues and throws true Texas heat. On the radar gun, mid-90’s is common and upper 90’s is not unusual. His future lies in ability to develop curveball that could make his power starter or power reliever. He’s made two starts and is 0-1 with 6.75 ERA and Boston is 12-4 against lefties. The Rangers on the other hand are 19-39 vs. southpaws.
Game 2 Edge: Boston
The final game of the series will have two veteran pitchers, trying to find their way in 2009. Vincente Padilla (3-3, 5.57) thought he was on his way in May with three razor-sharp performances, surrendering five runs total, in picking up three victories. He was then felled by strained right shoulder, which landed him on DL and in his first start back was clocked for seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. Maybe the light of day will help, since Padilla and Texas are 4-1 when he pitches day ball this season.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-3, 7.17) finally broke into the win column in his last outing, allowing one run over five innings against Detroit. The right-hander walked three and struck out six. Matsuzaka has been taxing on the bullpen, having pitched into the sixth inning just once in 2009. Based on both pitchers current form, this could be high scoring affair, though the oddsmakers have taken into account both teams daytime activities and they are combined 20-18-1 UNDER when playing in the afternoon.
Game 3 Edge: Texas
Thus far, the picks have been lousy at best and twice talked myself out of the right plays. This won’t happen this week. Boston owns Texas at Fenway and has favorable pitching matchups in first two games and is playing with more confidence. The Red Sox can mash with Texas and is 10-2 vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game this year. Boston is the play.
Sportsbook.com series odds: Texas +190, Boston -250
StatFox Edge Pick: Boston
2009 Record – 2-5
Betting on Chicago’s Survival
2008-10-06
The Chicago White Sox are proving to be as crafty as any street cat you see find walking around. For the third time in a week, Chicago staved off elimination, beating Tampa Bay 5-3, to trail the Rays 2-1 in the ALDS. The White Sox could care less how many lives they use up, as long as it leads to another World Series, who cares.
This figured to be a series where the home field would be a significant aspect.
Tampa Bay held the best record in baseball playing at home at 57-24 and Chicago was fourth at 54-28. To think that you are just going to waltz through this whole thing is not a good thought,” said Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, whose team went 40-41 on the road during the regular season. “It’s very unreasonable. They’re very good. They have faced some difficult moments recently in this ballpark and have done well.”
The White Sox are 23-8 against the money line in home games after having lost two of their last three games this season. They will start Gavin Floyd (17-8, 3.84 ERA) who helped keep the season alive last Monday defeating Detroit 8-2 to help Chicago tie Minnesota for the Central Division lead at the conclusion of 162 games. Floyd and the Sox are 14-3 at U.S. Cellular Field this season. “The fans have always been great. The atmosphere has been great here,” said the right-hander who’s never started against Tampa Bay.
Having faltered in their first attempt to put away the Pale Hose, the Rays will take another stab at it with Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38). The Tampa Bat right-hander has not won since August 18 picking up three losses, with the Rays 3-4 in those seven outings. Tampa Bay is 40-23 after having won three of their last four games this season and Sonnanstine 7-1 up against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. (Rays Record)
Sportsbook.com has Chicago as -125 money line favorites, with a total of Ov8.5. Based on the starting pitchers, Game 4 could be Totals play. Sonnanstine and Tampa Bay are 22-11 OVER when listed as underdog the last two years and Floyd and the Sox are 12-4 OVER at home in 2008. The only part that could ruin this is the last afternoon start (4:05 in Chicago), which would create background issues for hitters until the lights can take affect.
Chicago is 5-8 versus Tampa Bay this season and 2-2 at home and will be in full survival mode yet again, trying to force a deciding Game 5 Wednesday on the Left Coast of Florida.
StatFox Power Line – Chicago -132
MLB: First Place Rays hit the road as Favorites
2008-07-24
The Tampa Bay Rays are embarking on a vast number of road games over the next several weeks, which might explain what their real chances will be of winning the AL East and making the postseason for the first time in team history. Tampa Bay, to this point of the year is spectacular 40-16 at home, gathering +19.3 units of profit. No team in baseball has played more home games than the Rays 56, which means the schedule has to balance up in home and road contests. Starting tonight, Tampa Bay will play 17 of next 23 away from Tropicana Field.
Compared to many teams in baseball, manager Joe Maddon’s club is not that bad on the road at 19-25 (-5.7 units), placing them 16th overall. What makes heading out on the road different this time, is the aura of having lost last six games on the road. Maddon, as any good baseball man can point to, losing two in a row at Yankee Stadium is no big deal, since no opponent can presently win at the House Ruth built and New York City will tear down. Losing four in a row at Cleveland sounds worse than what actually occurred, since the Devil Rays or the Rays never win there anyways.
Tampa Bay has to be encouraged at first stop, Kansas City, who lost three in a row at home to Detroit and the pitching staff was massacred in allowing 33 runs in three games, while the Royals touched home plate just six times in the series. In the last three years, Tampa Bay is 11-6 versus K.C. and has split six contests at Kauffman Stadium.
Rays starter Matt Garza (8-5, 3.68, 1.200 WHIP) will take on a Royals club that is 2-11 against the money line in home games after a loss by four runs or more this season. Garza’s last road outing was a rough one, giving up a season-high seven earned runs to Cleveland in his July 12 start. He bounced back with 7 2/3 shutout innings against Toronto at home, nevertheless is 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA away from home. Granted, this is a different Tampa Bay team from the past, yet they are still 2-19 in July road games over the last two seasons and Garza is 0-3 with a 3.42 ERA in four career starts against the Royals.
Kansas City had won five of seven and two series in a row, until they were mauled by the Tigers. Time for the Royals to regroup and they’ll send Gil Meche (7-9, 4.48, 1.342) to the mound, hoping he can provide pitching relief. Meche is 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Rays. To his credit, the right-hander has been much more effective of late, as K.C. has won six of his last seven starts (+6.15 units) and he is 4-1 with a 3.25 ERA in that stretch.
Tampa Bay is getting the nod from those wagering that they are better team and have moved from -110 to -120 road favorites at Sportsbook.com. The Royals are 3-13 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring two runs or less this season and 35-75 in home games with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five outings. Tampa Bay is 42-26 against right-handed starters in 2008 and 40-21 when favored at -110 or higher.
This contest will commence at 8:10 Eastern and if Tampa Bay can win this series, it would the first time they have ever won 21 series in a season.
StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay -114